The Underdogs are Dancing on Through
- Zach
- Mar 22, 2018
- 6 min read
March is here in full swing with the craziest tournament we've seen to date; history is being made before our very eyes.
While everyone's favorite upset team, 16 seed UMBC fatefully fell to Kansas State last round, this is still the year of the upset. We'll go over our top takeaways from the Round of 32, how our picks from the last round faired, and our picks for the Sweet 16 with their keys for victory.
Most Substantial Results and What to Think:
The year of the upset, or the month of the upset I suppose, is in full swing! 8 of the teams that have made it this far participated in at least one upset, that's right, half of the remaining teams have overcome a higher seed to be here. Most notably perhaps from the round of 32 was FSU downing one seed Xavier with their explosive athleticism, fast break proficiency, and maybe a little help from the refs. However there were several other upsets of a similar caliber as offensive juggernaut, seventh seeded Nevada, overcame a 22 point deficit to finish atop the defensive stalwart that is 2 seed Cincinnati. Loyola-Chicago has kept on its tournament madness as an 11 seed, as it downed Tennessee in the final minutes this time as its relied on the clutch time to pick up narrow wins, being two and one point wins, to make it this far. Clemson overcame Auburn with more ease than even I expected as everything just seemed to click for Clemson in a 84-53 win and, at least for a moment in this tournament, they looked to deserve their 4 seed. Most surprising of all by far was 11 seed Syracuse Orange toppling the 3 seed Spartans in a game of shooting. Or honestly lack thereof as it was one of the least efficient games possibly in basketball history as MSU was limited to 25.8% from the field and 21.8% from downtown while the Orange managed 35.7% from the floor and a measly 12.5% on their treys. This was a hard fought battle of length and defense; literally that was it there was no offense at all in the close 55-53 affair.
So what do these all show? Similarly to the first round, the astounding amount of upsets and the presence of a whopping two 9 seeds and two 11 seeds once again prove that college basketball, unlike the NBA, is making strides toward parity. It shows that each team that showed up deserved to be here and that college basketball is showing its colors as a team-oriented sport in perhaps the most pure and true way ever. As far as the future, we can and should expect plenty more upsets and surprisingly tight games going forward as, to reiterate John Calipari, no team will have it easy from here on out. As far as the future of the sport, hopefully there will be even more parity to promote competitiveness and raise awareness of talent at even the most obscure schools, take UMBC and Loyola-Chicago for example. Above all, the air of upset bodes for one of the most, if not the most, exciting NCAA tournaments we've ever seen.
What we got right:
Kentucky beat Buffalo
Loyola-Chicago beat Tennessee
Gonzaga beat Ohio State
Michigan beat Houston
Villanova beat Alabama
West Virginia beat Marshall
Texas Tech beat Florida
Kansas beat Seton Hall
Clemson beat Auburn
Duke beat Rhode Island
Swings and Misses:
Kansas State beat UMBC
Nevada beat Cincinnati
Florida State beat Xavier
Texas A&M beat UNC
Purdue beat Butler
Syracuse beat Michigan State
Second Round Score: 10/16
Overall Score: 34/48
Sweet Sixteen Selections:
Kansas State, after struggling to score at all in the second half against the statistically defensively mediocre Retrievers, will fall to Kentucky, led by their guards offense and the frenzy style defense Coach Calipari will enforce. If Kansas State manages to rediscover its offense and adopt a more shutdown brand of defense, they could overcome the Wildcats, however I wouldn't bank on it since Calipari's side has been down only a combined 81 seconds the whole tournament.
Loyola-Chicago, riding a wave of stellar form on a 12 game win streak, will use their classic gritty defense and their overall offensive excellence to overcome the scoring aficionados of the Nevada Wolfpack. The only way Nevada, which is used to close games with an average net rating of 5.0 will overcome the overall dominant Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, with a net rating of 9.9, is by getting inside with twin forwards Caleb and Cody Martin. Seeing as Loyola-Chicago has no athletic defensive rim protector, the versatile brothers who excel in all facets of the offensive game and possess solid bounce-ability, will need to run pick and rolls and focus on athletic finishes and ball movement to overcome the Ramblers. Seeing as the Ramblers have won the last two games on a clutch, near walk-on shot, with margin of victories of two and one respectively, we can expect a close and high scoring game.
Florida State will succumb to the more efficient Bulldogs, who have the second best average margin of victory at 16.9 Florida State has continually overcome tough opponents in Missouri and Xavier, however Missouri was only seven men deep and Xavier was incapable of competing with their athleticism and fell victim to several questionable calls. Gonzaga has the 9th best effective field goal percentage in college basketball and excels at controlling the pace, so the explosive Seminoles simply will lose control in the game. If worst comes to worst for the Bulldogs, clutch freshman Zach Norvell Jr. could very well save them in a moment of March Madness as he's already excelled at in the tourney thus far.
Michigan will find itself in a tough fight against the Aggies, who defeated highly touted UNC by 21 points led by forwards Robert Williams, DJ Hogg, and Tyler Davis. Michigan, however, has not lost a single game since the start of the Big10 tournament and have become the tournament darlings led by committed leader Moritz Wagner and clutch freshman Jordan Peele, and have yet to even play their best basketball as they continually pick up pace and form. Michigan will ultimately win the matchup along with the rebounding battle in a very competitive and physical matchup against the Aggies.
West Virginia will beat Villanova in a close game between arguably the best defense and the most fluid offense in college basketball as they continue to gain momentum just as their defensive anchor Sagaba Konate and two-way superstar Jevon Carter is getting hot on both ends of the floor, putting up 28 points and five steals in his last game. This will be a veteran matchup and a beautiful game to watch as each team has a hall of fame caliber coach, being Bob Huggins and Jay Wright, and a veteran, NBA-ready guard in Jevon Carter and Jalen Brunson.
Texas Tech, with hustle play, control of the boards, and shutdown defense, will win by a substantial margin against Purdue, who is short of their star big man Isaac Haas. His replacement Matt Haarms managed 7 points, 6 boards, and 2 rejections last game, and while that is a respectable line and he has impressive height at 7'3", his inexperience will lead to the Boilermakers losing the rebounding battle and with that losing the contest.
Kansas should be able to comfortably overcome Clemson, because as I've preached repeatedly, the Tigers are one of the all around most inefficient teams in the tourney. Not only that but they only have two or three legitimate scoring options that can consistently create for themselves. Despite a rocky start to the tournament, Bill Self is too adept a coach and has too talented of a roster to fall to Clemson.
Duke will overcome Syracuse in a surprisingly close matchup, with special focus on the forward battle. Syracuse, being the longest and tallest team in division 1, has continually proven pundits wrong by winning their First Four In game, as well as the past two rounds, despite being written off in each round. The key to this game will be Duke's tandem of elite forwards, Wendell Carter and Marvin Bagley, along with the team's excellent ball movement, overcoming the length in the Orange which was able to shut down the relatively talented MSU offense.
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